Student: Rebecca Pontes Salles
Title: Benchmarking Nonstationary Time Series Prediction
Advisors: Eduardo Soares Ogasawara (advisor), Pedro Henrique González Silva (co-advisor)
Committee: Eduardo Soares Ogasawara (Cefet/RJ) (president), Pedro Henrique González Silva (Cefet/RJ), Eduardo Bezerra da Silva (CEFET/RJ), Fabio Andre Machado Porto (LNCC), Florent Masseglia (INRIA)
Day/Time: February 6, 9 am
Room: Auditorium V
Data preprocessing is a crucial step for mining and learning from data, and one of its primary activities is the transformation of data. This activity is very important in the context of time series prediction since most time series models assume the property of stationarity, i.e., statistical properties do not change over time, which in practice is the exception and not the rule in most real datasets. There are several transformation methods designed to treat nonstationarity in time series. However, the choice of a transformation that is appropriate to the adopted data model and to the problem at hand is not a simple task. This paper provides a review and experimental analysis of methods for transformation of nonstationary time series. The focus of this work is to provide a background on the subject and a discussion on their advantages and limitations to the problem of time series prediction. A subset of the reviewed transformation methods is compared through an experimental evaluation using benchmark datasets from time series prediction competitions and other real macroeconomic datasets. Suitable nonstationary time series transformation methods provided improvements of more than 30% in prediction accuracy for half of the evaluated time series and improved the prediction in more than 95% for 10% of the time series. Furthermore, the adoption of a validation phase during model training enables the selection of suitable transformation methods.